The Business Times
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A Personal Finance and Investment Arm of The Business Times


    • Lower for longer to keep capital sidelined 14 Jan 2015

      The search for a new equilibrium continues. Source: Goldman Sachs
    • OCBC Bank

      Beware of upside risk 01 Oct 2014

      The key puzzle piece yesterday, was the relative tame oil prices (WTI - $94.6, Brent - $97.23) despite the disappointing HSBC China manufacturing PMI print at 50.2 (mkt est: 50.5). Traditionally, disappointing growth data especially from China, which consequently suggest possible lacklustre commodity demand, should drag oil prices. Source: OCBC
    • Iraq Unrest May Slowly Alter Psychology of Oil Markets

      Iraq Unrest May Slowly Alter Psychology of Oil Markets 17 Jun 2014

      Near-term geopolitical premium may fade with time, but impacts on long-dated oil could persist. Headlines, escalating violence, short covering and prior underinvestment will likely continue to lift Brent near term. Source: Morgan Stanley
    • Schroders Multi-Asset Investments: Views and insights

      Schroders Multi-Asset Investments: Views and insights 17 Jun 2014

      Equities remain our preferred risk premium given the continuing global economic recovery and positive sentiment. However, we need to see further corporate earnings growth to justify current valuation levels. Source: Schroders
    • India Gold Policy Reversal to Modestly Support Demand

      India Gold Policy Reversal to Modestly Support Demand 27 May 2014

      India’s Reserve Banks relaxed rules for importing gold last week. Partially reversing policies put in place last year, the RBI eased import rules and will now allow several trading entities to import gold. Source: Morgan Stanley
    • Is Coal the Canary for Commodities?

      Is Coal the Canary for Commodities? 07 May 2014

      While considering potential metal and bulk commodity price direction the rest of the year, we found it useful to look through the lens of the increasingly divergent coal markets. Global seaborne metallurgical and thermal coal markets are in oversupply. Source: Morgan Stanley
    • Low OECD crude stocks send wrong signal

      Low OECD crude stocks send wrong signal 02 Apr 2014

      Low OECD crude stocks are concentrated in OECD Europe and OECD Pacific (ex. Korea), where lower demand supports destocking. Source: Morgan Stanley
    • The Commodity Manual: Collateral Damage in Copper and Iron Ore

      The Commodity Manual: Collateral Damage in Copper and Iron Ore 17 Mar 2014

      Copper and iron ore are victims in a complex web of carry trade. We believe the recent sharp sell-off in copper and iron ore has its origins in credit tightness in China. In our view, Beijing is targeting those using commodities for collateral in the shadow-banking network. This channel is being used to evade capital controls and targeted credit policies that are aimed at reducing excess capacity and pollution. Source: Morgan Stanley
    • OCBC's commodities outlook 2014

      OCBC's commodities outlook 2014 11 Jan 2014

      The US oil supply abundance in 2013 should spill over to 2014. US shale production is likely to outpace oil-producing OPEC countries (except Saudi Arabia) within the next two years. Meanwhile, the taunt of lower gold prices lingers, given possibilities of QE tapering developments; and stronger palm oil demand and relatively tame production growth this year are leading signs that palm oil prices may recover in 2014.  Source: OCBC Investment Research
    • 2014 Outlook – Asian Steel and Coal

      2014 Outlook – Asian Steel and Coal 11 Dec 2013

      Oversupply and weak prices drive negative outlooks Source: Moody's Investor Service
    • 2014 Outlook: Asian Oil & Gas

      2014 Outlook: Asian Oil & Gas 10 Dec 2013

      Stable oil prices support upstream companies while downstream firms face continued headwinds Source: Moody's Investors Service
    • Shale gas - opportunities and threats for global chemicals

      Shale gas - opportunities and threats for global chemicals 26 Nov 2013

      The impact of “cheap” shale gas on the US chemical industry’s cost base is well known but we note three less well understood conclusions: 1) US chemical capacity expansions are being delayed (engineering bottlenecks, permitting delays) indicating that the shale driven capex “boom” will take much longer than many expect. 2) Most listed European chemical names are not impacted by the US’s advantaged feedstock as they focus on other areas of chemistry, and 3) Asian producers have the most to lose long-term as they sit at the top of the global cost curve. Top shale gas picks are BASF/Arkema (Europe) and Lyondell (US). Yara is the most negatively affected. Source: Deutsche Bank Market Research
    • China's commodity demand

      China's commodity demand 26 Oct 2013

      China has emerged as an influential force in commodity markets. As the fastest-growing economy in the past decade, with a growth strategy that relies on investments and exports, the country has displayed an intensive use of commodities compared to other emerging nations. China’s consumption as a percentage of global production accounts for about 20% of non-renewable energy resources, 23% of major agricultural products and 40% of base metals. Source: ABN AMRO
    • Balancing geological potential and political risk: Interview with Tony Hayward

      Balancing geological potential and political risk: Interview with Tony Hayward 09 Oct 2013

      From Kurdistan to Somaliland, for independent oil companies, getting your hands on new exploration acreage where both technical risk and political risk are low is impossible. Exploring for oil and gas in new frontiers is all about striking the right balance between geological potential and political risk. Source:
    • Commodities advantage: China vs the rest of the world…

      Commodities advantage: China vs the rest of the world… 01 Aug 2013

      Global growth remains weak in aggregate but it is becoming clear that the latest “slowdown scare” has come to an end and global industrial production growth is in the process of recovery, albeit at a relatively subdued pace. In normal circumstances this would be a clear positive for industrial commodity prices. However, the current story is more mixed, largely because China’s growth is diverging substantially from that being achieved in the West. Source: Credit Suisse
    • Commodities Outlook: 2H 2013

      Commodities Outlook: 2H 2013 22 Jul 2013

      For 2H2013, we expect palm oil prices to stay lacklustre, and soybean prices to remain weak as production recovers from 2012 lows. Gold appears range-bound between US$1,200 - US$1,300/oz. We cut our gold forecast to US$1,250/oz on QE tapering expectations. Copper demand is likely to stay soft, while previous oil supply surplus concerns are likely to play out once again in 2H2013 when geopolitical concerns in Egypt wanes.   Source: OCBC
    • Gold market outlook Q3 2013

      Gold market outlook Q3 2013 01 Jul 2013

      How did gold perform the past quarter? Where do we expect gold prices to be for the rest of 2013? Source: Phillip Futures
    • Asean agri-commodities: A stock picker's market

      Asean agri-commodities: A stock picker's market 06 Jun 2013

      We assume coverage on the Asean Agri-Commodities sector. We believe that risk-reward has turned favorable for supply chain players WIL, NOBL, OLAM, which are now trading at close to trough levels. We are also OW FR, GENP, BWPT, AALI as we find that  high-quality upstream stocks do outperform even in a range-bound CPO price environment. We stay UW on MII on continued competitive pressure. Source: JP Morgan
    • What if commodities weakness continues?

      What if commodities weakness continues? 26 Apr 2013

      Commodity prices recently stabilised, but the latest weak global economic data raise a question mark over the path of commodity prices and the terms of trade effect on different emerging market economies. We identify Venezuela, Chile, Russia, South Africa and Malaysia as having a high growth vulnerability to a negative term of trade shift resulting from soft commodity prices, and think that Turkey would benefit from softer prices. Source: Barclays
    • Green shoots among tall weeds

      Green shoots among tall weeds 30 Jan 2013

      Into 2013, the commodities space would still be affected by the see-sawing of risk sentiments, with possible poor weather and immense liquidity injections influencing the demand-supply spectrum. We remain cautiously optimistic in expectation of a sustained improvement in both global growth and sentiments amid an extended low-interest rate and highly liquid environment at least till 2015. Our top picks remain in the precious metal space, given a persistent central bank buying in reserve diversification to trigger significant price gains. Source: OCBC


Straits Times Index 3,382.38 41.08
Volume Value Rise Fall Unchanged
1,371.5M 1,109.6M 209 149 395
Updated: 17 Nov 2017 17:04 (Quotes are 10 mins delayed)


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