The Business Times
Sunday, 22 October, 2017   

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Articles by Mario Singh

Articles by Mario Singh

  • 08 Mar 2016

    RBA Optimism Pushes Aussie To 6-Month High

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates unchanged in their latest announcement.  They expressed slight concern over inflation, but little worries on the slowdown in Asia.  Their comments were viewed as relatively optimistic, especially with their largest trading partner experiencing...
  • 30 Nov 2015

    Market in the Storm

    Last week, the dollar spiked to an eight-month high of 100.19 points dominating the sterling amid unsatisfactory UK data. The deteriorating UK consumer confidence fell to the lowest in six months induced the sell-off of the sterling against the dollar resulting a drop of 0.41% to $1.5040 during...
  • 29 Sep 2015

    IMF Bearish on World Economy

    In a recent newspaper interview, International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Christine Lagarde said that estimates for global economic growth are likely to be revised downwards due to slower growth in emerging economies.
  • 24 Aug 2015

    Bears Out in Full Force

    Asian stocks extended declines as a global rout deepened, pushing a measure of equities around the region toward a two-year low.
  • 03 Aug 2015

    US Growth Disappoints

    Late last week, the US Commerce Department reported that higher consumer spending drove an annualised GDP increase of 2.3% between April and June. Economists had expected a figure nearer to 2.6%.
  • 15 Jun 2015

    Will Greece Finally Exit The Euro?

    Last week, last-ditch talks in Brussels between Greece and its creditors were called off without a deal after just 45 minutes into the talks.
  • 11 Jun 2015

    China Slows While US Powers On

    China’s trade figures for both imports and exports have fallen for a third straight month, underscoring a sluggish domestic environment in need of more monetary policy support.
  • 14 Apr 2015

    British Pound Hits 5 Year Low

    The pound slipped to an almost five-year low against the dollar as the U.K. election campaign entered its final month, with investors bracing for a contest that’s set to be the tightest in a generation.
  • 07 Apr 2015

    US Shocks With Low Employment Figures

    The weakness in the rest of the US economy finally caught up with the job market last month. According to figures from the USA Labour Department, American companies added 126,000 jobs in March, only about half of the 245,000 median estimate of 98 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
  • 24 Feb 2015

    Greece Extends Lifeline

    Eurozone finance ministers agreed to extend Greece’s bailout deal for another four months, provided it came up with a list of reforms by this week. Under the deal, Greece will still live under the EU/IMF bailout which Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras had pledged to scrap.
  • 09 Feb 2015

    SNB Shocker – What Next For CHF?

    On 15thJanuary, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) shocked the entire capital markets by unexpectedly removing the EUR/CHF peg set at 1.20. The surprise move caught many off-guard and sent the Swiss Franc (CHF) into the stratosphere, rising about 40% in a mere 30 minutes.
  • 09 Feb 2015

    China’s PMI Shrinks

    China’s factory sector unexpectedly shrank for the first time in nearly two-and-a-half years last month and firms see more gloom ahead, raising expectations that policymakers will take more action to forestall a sharper slowdown.
  • 13 Jan 2015

    Euro Continues Fall, Dollar Holds

    Reports from last week’s Non-farm payrolls had mixed signals – US job growth increased in December but wages posted their biggest decline in at least eight years.
  • 15 Dec 2014 China Acts with Surprising Rate Cut

    China Acts with Surprising Rate Cut

    Late last week, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a cut in interest rates.
  • 15 Dec 2014 Oil Plunges Below $60 a Barrel

    Oil Plunges Below $60 a Barrel

    On 10th December, the 12-member OPEC group predicted that the demand for crude oil will drop next year by about 300,000 barrels a day to 28.9 million, the least since 2003.
  • 27 Oct 2014 Most Banks Pass EU’s Stress Test

    Most Banks Pass EU’s Stress Test

    Here’s the bad news - the European Central Bank (ECB) failed 25 of 130 lenders in its assessment of the quality of bank balance sheets and their ability to withstand times of economic stress.
  • 20 Oct 2014 Markets Swing as Global Growth Falters

    Markets Swing as Global Growth Falters

    In the month of October alone, more than USD3.2 trillion was wiped off from the value of world shares as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its outlook for global growth in 2015.
  • 13 Oct 2014 Yen and Gold Gain on Fed’s Remarks

    Yen and Gold Gain on Fed’s Remarks

    Last week, officials met in Washington for the annual World Bank/IMF annual meeting to discuss the global economy. The most notable sentence was probably by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer who mentioned that the effort to finally normalise US monetary policy after years of extraordinary stimulus...
  • 29 Sep 2014 Fundamentally Driven, Technically Executed

    Fundamentally Driven, Technically Executed

    A personal trading motto that I follow is the term “Fundamentally Driven, Technically Executed.”
  • 22 Sep 2014 Gold Continues To Head South

    Gold Continues To Head South

    All else being equal, Gold prices move in the opposite direction to the US dollar.
  • 02 Sep 2014 Policy Divergence Emerges in Jackson Hole

    Policy Divergence Emerges in Jackson Hole

    In the annual Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers, a central theme echoed among all of them: labour markets still have further to heal before their economies can weather higher interest rates. More specifically, stronger hiring and wages are still needed to drive demand.
  • 02 Sep 2014 Bad News From Europe to China

    Bad News From Europe to China

    Europe’s economic outlook doesn’t look good.
  • 18 Aug 2014 Europe Economy Sputters

    Europe Economy Sputters

    After leading the currency bloc out of its longest-ever recession last year, Germany’s economy contracted in the second quarter of 2014.
  • 18 Aug 2014 Draghi’s Cheap Cash Plan Losing Steam

    Draghi’s Cheap Cash Plan Losing Steam

    European Central Bank (ECB)  President Mario Draghi had a plan to revive the European economy in the form of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations, or TLTROs. Launched in June this year, the program allowed lenders to apply for funds from the ECB at 10 basis points above the benchmark...
  • 04 Aug 2014 BIS Sounds Warning to Central Banks

    BIS Sounds Warning to Central Banks

    Regarded widely as the “central bank for central banks”, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) sounded a warning yesterday that central banks may find themselves behind the curve, exiting too slowly or too late from emergency policy meaures.
  • 21 Jul 2014 US Strengthens on Geo-Political Risks

    US Strengthens on Geo-Political Risks

    As Israel increases its offensive into Gaza and tensions between Russia and Ukraine increase, the sole benefactor in the currency market has been the US dollar.
  • 23 Jun 2014 China’s Data Surprises to the Upside

    China’s Data Surprises to the Upside

    China’s preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was reported at 50.8 on Monday morning, exceeding the 49.7 median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News and the figure of 49.4 in May.
  • 19 Jun 2014 Iraq Conflict Pushes Oil and Gold Up

    Iraq Conflict Pushes Oil and Gold Up

    Last Friday, Brent Crude surged above USD114 for the first time in 9 months and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rallied 4.1 percent as tensions in Iraq escalated. Militants linked to al-Qaeda extended control over Iraq’s second-biggest city and battled for energy infrastructure, including the...
  • 12 May 2014 Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise

    Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise

    Last Friday, the US reported that employers added 288,000 workers in April, marking the biggest upside surprise in the payrolls data since February 2012. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted an increase of 218,000. Friday’s numbers followed a 203,000 increase the prior month. The...
  • 12 May 2014 Safe Havens Rise on Continued Ukraine Tensions

    Safe Havens Rise on Continued Ukraine Tensions

    Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are escalating once more. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Ukraine against continuing an anti-separatist offensive that killed five rebels. This week, representatives of the 28 European Union nations will meet to impose new sanctions on...
  • 12 May 2014 China’s “New Normal” Growth

    China’s “New Normal” Growth

    On 10th May, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China needed to adapt to a “new normal” in the pace of economic growth.
  • 21 Apr 2014 Yen Weakens on Japan’s Trade Deficit

    Yen Weakens on Japan’s Trade Deficit

    Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported today that the trade deficit for March came in at 1.45 trillion yen. The figure was more than the 1.08 trillion yen median estimate of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
  • 21 Apr 2014 Euro Drops on Draghi’s Stimulus Comment

    Euro Drops on Draghi’s Stimulus Comment

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi were among the Group of 20 policy makers who ended Washington talks last week, promising to “provide clear and timely communication of our actions and be mindful of impacts on the global economy as policy...
  • 21 Apr 2014 BOJ Cash Might Surpass Fed’s

    BOJ Cash Might Surpass Fed’s

    Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens remarked last month that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may soon outpace the Federal Reserve if it adds to so-called quantitative easing.
  • 21 Apr 2014 Risk Currencies Fall After Yellen’s Speech

    Risk Currencies Fall After Yellen’s Speech

    In her first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen made several key annoucements:
  • 17 Mar 2014 China Doubles Yuan’s Trading Band

    China Doubles Yuan’s Trading Band

    Over the weekend, China's central bank doubled the yuan's trading band to two per cent, loosening its grip on the tightly-controlled currency and underscoring efforts to accelerate exchange-rate reforms as concerns mount over the slowing economy.
  • 10 Mar 2014 New Zealand Set to Raise Rates

    New Zealand Set to Raise Rates

    The earthquake which erupted in Christchurch three years ago killed 185 people and destroyed thousands of buildings. The catastrophe caused the central bank to cut the cash rate to a record-low 2.5 percent in the aftermath as New Zealand struggled to rebuild the country’s second largest city.
  • 10 Mar 2014 Safe Havens Rise on Ukraine-Russia Tension

    Safe Havens Rise on Ukraine-Russia Tension

    The EUR/USD opened with a 40 pip gap down early in Monday morning as tensions over Russia and Ukraine escalated.
  • 17 Feb 2014 Gold Starts to Rise as Dollar Drops

    Gold Starts to Rise as Dollar Drops

    Some signs of a possible US slowdown are starting to emerge.
  • 13 Feb 2014 Asia Faces a Sell-Off

    Asia Faces a Sell-Off

    On 7th February, the US reported an addition of 113,000 jobs, trailing the median estimate of 180,000 in a Bloomberg survey. Additionally, the jobless rate dropped to 6.6 percent, the lowest since October 2008.
  • 28 Jan 2014

    Safe havens rise on emerging market sell-off

    Argentina led a slump in emerging-market currencies last week as the country devalued its peso the most in 12 years - causing it to slump 15 per cent. The move was done after the central bank scaled back its intervention in a bid to preserve international reserves that have fallen to a seven year...
  • 21 Jan 2014

    Aussie floats towards 85 cents

    Australia reported a horrid employment number late last week, causing the AUD/USD to plunge 100 pips in just one hour.
  • 14 Jan 2014

    US jobs drop to 2 year low

    Just when the Federal Reserve hinted at signs of an improving US economy, the US released a shocker - that employers added only 74,000 workers in December, the weakest growth since January 2011.
  • 06 Jan 2014

    Major themes For 2014

  • 25 Nov 2013

    Yen at six-month low

    Asian stocks gained and the Japanese yen touched the weakest in almost six months after an accord was struck to set limits on Iran’s nuclear program.
  • 19 Nov 2013

    Why are gold and dollar both falling?

    Last week, nominee for next chairperson of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, delivered a very dovish speech to the Senate Banking Committee. The main gist of her message centred around the message of “no set time for tapering” and “long-term unemployment being the biggest problem for US...
  • 12 Nov 2013

    Double boost for the greenback

    Last week was an eventful week with 3 Central Banks announcing their interest rate decisions and official statements. There were major data releases as well, like US Non-Farm Payroll, US GDP, China’s Trade Balance, China’s CPI, Australia’s and New Zealand’s employment data etc.
  • 21 Oct 2013 Asia gains on US debt ceiling debacle

    Asia gains on US debt ceiling debacle

    Last week, US President Barack Obama signed legislation that funds the government through mid-January and suspends the nation’s USD16.7 trillion debt limit. While the measure saved the US from the brink of default, it left the national debt soaring at an astronomical rate that is expected...
  • 14 Oct 2013

    “D-Day” for US politicians to get their act together

    It is coming to two weeks since the US government partial shutdown and it is remaining so due to the failure of US politicians in coming to an agreement on raising their debt ceiling.  In order to avoid a default, US politicians need to get their act together fast before their borrowing authority...
  • 07 Oct 2013 Central banks lose heavily on gold

    Central banks lose heavily on gold

    In July this year, Ben Bernanke, the world’s most powerful central banker, told the US Senate Banking Committee that “nobody really understands gold prices and I don’t pretend to really understand them either.”
  • 01 Oct 2013 What happens if USA shuts down?

    What happens if USA shuts down?

    The US government is headed for its first partial shutdown in 17 years after a deadlocked weekend between the House and the Senate due to a budget standoff.
  • 16 Sep 2013 QE tapering now or later?

    QE tapering now or later?

    A surprise came on Sunday when Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers gave up the chance to become one of the world’s most influential central bankers by withdrawing from the candidate list for the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
  • 09 Sep 2013 Yen Drops on Olympics

    Yen Drops on Olympics

    Many traders find it baffling when the yen dropped after news confirmed that Tokyo would be the host city for the 2020 Olympics. After all, conventional wisdom teaches that “positive news should reflect positively on the local currency”. The answer lies in the way the markets interpret the...
  • 03 Sep 2013 China's PMI Soars

    China's PMI Soars

    There was some cheer in the markets yesterday when China reported its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures. Numbers came in at 51.0 in August which was a 16-month high, as new orders jumped and overseas demand rebounded. This figure was slightly better than the 50.6 median estimate of 31...
  • 27 Aug 2013 The unstoppable US dollar

    The unstoppable US dollar

    Most of the major currencies abnegated gaining the ground to the greenback last week, notwithstanding China and the Euro zone reporting intrepid manufacturing data. Among all the major currencies, the best performer against the US Dollar was the Swedish Krona, but it only managed to outperform the...
  • 20 Aug 2013 Gold heading higher

    Gold heading higher

    Gold prices have advanced to the highest since mid-June on signs of physical demand. Last week, the net-bullish position rose 18 percent to 56,604 futures and options according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This caused gold prices to jump 4.5 percent to USD1,371 an...
  • 12 Aug 2013 High Hopes For US Retail Sales

    High Hopes For US Retail Sales

    Economists are expecting that US retail sales probably rose for a fourth consecutive month in July, showing the US economy is breaking free of the effects of higher taxes and budget cuts.
  • 05 Aug 2013 Forex Money Weekly: US dollar weakens after jobs report

    Forex Money Weekly: US dollar weakens after jobs report

    Last Friday, US employers added 162,000 workers to payrolls in July, the least in four months and below the median economist estimate of 185,000. The silver lining in the report however, showed that the unemployment rate dropped to 7.4 per cent, compared with a median economist projection of...
  • 29 Jul 2013 Will the dollar continue to fall this week?

    Will the dollar continue to fall this week?

    Dollar has weakened against the other major currencies last week.  Will the Dollar Bear be able to sustain the momentum this week?
  • 29 Jul 2013 Forex Money Weekly: Will the dollar continue to fall this week?

    Forex Money Weekly: Will the dollar continue to fall this week?

  • 22 Jul 2013 Three reasons for dollar weakness this week

    Three reasons for dollar weakness this week

    This week, three major themes hog the headlines which all contribute to dollar weakness.
  • 15 Jul 2013 Forex Money Weekly: Decoding words and numbers

    Forex Money Weekly: Decoding words and numbers

    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC ) meeting minutes showed about half of the 19 participants in FOMC prefer tapering by year’s end.  However, it was Bernanke’s speech, made 2 hours later after the release of FOMC meeting minutes, that the market celebrated.  China’s official Q2 GDP...
  • 24 Jun 2013 Forex Money Weekly: QE tapering continues to hog the lime-light

    Forex Money Weekly: QE tapering continues to hog the lime-light

    All eyes and ears were on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held last week.  The most important message came during the Q&A session where FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke mentioned that the FED would probably make some adjustments to its USD85 billion monthly bond buying later in 2013...
  • 17 Jun 2013 Forex Money Weekly: Hedge funds cut gold bets

    Forex Money Weekly: Hedge funds cut gold bets

    Hedge funds cut wagers on a gold rally for the first time in three weeks on mounting speculation central banks will curb record stimulus. Last week, hedge funds and other large speculators lowered their net-long positions by 4.1 per cent to 54,779, according to data by the US Commodity Futures...
  • 10 Jun 2013 Decoding Bernanke’s Thoughts

    Decoding Bernanke’s Thoughts

    The word on the street is that the Federal Reserve will start to scale back on the current US$85 billion in monthly bond purchases soon. This was the main reason that Friday’s job report was closely watched by traders and investors worldwide.
  • 04 Jun 2013 The US Dollar Consolidates But Case For Further Upside Remains

    The US Dollar Consolidates But Case For Further Upside Remains

    Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for a third-day of losses, after improving U.S. economic reports added to concern the Federal Reserve (Fed) will scale back its stimulus and data painted a mixed picture about China’s manufacturing.

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